Washington Nationals
The First Banana Bowl Championship
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Did you know there was postseason baseball last night at Nationals Park? Yes, the inaugural Banana Bowl championship was played on Saturday night in front of a sold-out crowd of 41,000 at Nationals Park. The highly anticipated finale capped off the blockbuster 2026 Banana Ball Championship League season after 191 games between the six teams in the league to get to the two teams to play in this final game between the Savannah Bananas and the Texas Tailgaters. The Texas Tailgaters won the inaugural Banana Bowl championship game last night, defeating the Savannah Bananas with a final score of 2-1. Truthfully, the score probably didn’t matter to most. Because the game finished deadlocked at 1 point apiece after nine innings under the unique Banana Ball scoring format, the title came down to a one-on-one Showdown tiebreaker. Texas infielder Nick Lopez scored the decisive run against Savannah pitcher Danny Hosley, and Tailgaters reliever Chris Clarke struck out the Bananas’ Dan Oberst to seal the victory. True to Banana Ball tradition, the host city received a special nod that united the local Washington Nationals faithful and this went further as two former-Nats (click on the link for video) would face each other. Loud applause erupted when former Nationals All-Star pitcher Jordan Zimmermann emerged from the Tailgaters’ dugout. Zimmermann threw the first no-hitter in Nats history. The decibel level exploded moments later when Nationals legend Ryan Zimmerman was announced by Cole as a pinch-hitter for the Bananas, waving to the…
What if Toboni just makes moderate changes?
What we learned this year is that not all blown-saves are created equally. The blown-save loss is much different than a blown-save that leaves you with a chance to still win the game. Of the Washington Nationals record-setting ignominious 42 blown-saves, there were 24 that turned potential wins into losses. President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, discussed this on the radio at the end of September and said that if half of those losses were wins, his team probably would have been in the postseason. If Toboni thinks that the bullpen was his main problem, maybe he makes moderate changes to his roster and prioritizes a fortification of his bullpen. His 2026 team won 77 games and if you added back half of those bullpen losses (12) to that number — that is 89 wins and a postseason spot. Are the numbers that simple? Truthfully, the numbers are never that simple. You still have to account for the loss of production from traded players like Foster Griffin, Luis Garcia Jr., and Curtis Mead. That is subtraction by subtraction as the replacements did not match Griffin and Garcia’s production especially at first base with Abimelec Ortiz. While Andres Chaparro and Yohandy Morales did a good job of covering Mead’s production, and Andrew Alvarez stepped up in Griffin’s spot, the team really could use a left-handed first baseman and another key starting pitcher. Starting Pitchers Remember, the starting rotation back on Opening Day had Griffin, Cade Cavalli, Jake Irvin, Zack Littell, and…
Will This Be the Year of the Moneyball World Series?
This could be a Moneyball World Series matchup if the Milwaukee Brewers emerge as the National League champion. Of course that would entail beating the Los Angeles Dodgers to advance to the World Series — and that is a tall order. The American League champion is guaranteed to be a low budget team because the three teams remaining are the Chicago White Sox, Tampa and the Guardians ranked 5ᵗʰ to last, 4ᵗʰ to last, and 1ˢᵗ in lowest spending, respectively. For those of you that say spend, spend, spend — four of those five remaining teams have survived in the bottom-half of spending since the CBT payroll system was started. In fact, three of those teams also receive revenue sharing. In a year when MLB and the Player’s Union (MLBPA) are arguing over a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), the union has been arguing that the sport is healthy and competitive. The last time a small market team won a World Series was 11 years ago when the Kansas City Royals reigned supreme. This year, a low budget team will be the American League representative in the World Series — and that is now guaranteed. We have to say low budget team because if the Chicago White Sox emerge as the American League’s World Series team, they are a large market team that operates as a low budget team. The Southsiders are the poor Chicago cousin to the mighty Chicago Cubs who were bounced from the postseason in the Wild…
The Addition by Subtraction Strategy
The short-term goals of the Washington Nationals as laid-out by president of baseball operations, Paul Toboni, started with building a solid foundation and improving the current stock of players. While Toboni never put a timeline on those goals, he got there in less than a year. Our assumption was that this would take 2-to-3 years. If you were a player who did not show improvement or at least perceived promise, there was a good chance that you were going to be removed as an employee of the Washington Nationals regardless of your draft status or a large international signing bonus. In Spring Training, former first rounder (second overall pick in the 2023 draft), Dylan Crews, was demoted to Triple-A. He was later called up, but there was clearly a message sent. Later in the season, another first rounder, Brady House, was demoted and later called up. Not so lucky were former first rounders Jackson Rutledge and Robert Hassell as well as top international free agent Armando Cruz. They were all gone from the system. There were others too. Some front office executives have long leashes, and Toboni’s is short with most, not all. If he acquired you, there are better chances on your longevity, but he didn’t keep Cionel Perez around for long and his employment ended on May 4. Yes, Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas lasted a little longer. Between those three, Toboni invested over $10 million. C’est la vie. The Addition By Subtraction Strategy The addition by subtraction…
Critical Defensive Metrics That Decide Baseball Games
Baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anyone who has watched enough of it knows exactly what that means. You’ve heard before that “Defense Matters.” You can have the best lineup in the league and still lose on a night when three grounders sneak through the infield. You can carry an ace on the mound and watch him get burned by two misplays in the fourth. Leads evaporate. Sure things turn into losses. Just look at Monday’s Yankees game with their three errors in the beginning of the game. The game has a way of humbling everyone involved, from the front office down to the last man on the bench. For this reason, baseball is one of the most popular sports to wager on. The margins are tight, the variables are many, and the outcomes are rarely guaranteed. If baseball betting enthusiasts go to thespike.gg/betting to view more, or any other reputable betting review site for that matter, they will quickly see that the most established sportsbooks offer detailed coverage of professional baseball matches from leagues around the world. But when it comes to the game itself, it is worth stepping back and thinking about the defensive side, specifically, what happens in the first six innings. Most fans track offense, watch home run totals, and follow ERA leaderboards. Far fewer pay close attention to the defensive metrics that shape outcomes long before the bullpen gets involved. Those numbers, however, often tell the real story of a baseball game. Why the First…
Are the Nats really trying to be the Milwaukee Brewers?
We have been saying it for years that the new Moneyball formula is what the Brewers and Royals were trying to put together with second-tier pitchers, above average bullpens, and that Billy Beane style of the Oakland A’s Moneyball era OBP that would turn into a top run scoring offense. While the Royals didn’t get there ultimately to prolonged winning, the Brewers seem to be the model here. They don’t have any big-time free agents. The average fan outside of Milwaukee would struggle to give one name on their roster beyond Christian Yelich or Jackson Chourio or Jacob Misiorowski. That Brewers team won 103 games with a payroll of $154 million this year. Did you know that in 2025, the Brewers and Nats had the same $140 million Opening Day payroll? True, the money is never really the same when you look at the roster and where the money was spent. Still, kind of amazing considering this year that the Brewers are paying Brandon Woodruff over $22 million, and he has been injured most of the season after only pitching in 46 full innings this season. It’s always about how you spend the money. The Brewers, besides missing on Woodruff, have spent wisely. They have a team leader in Yelich who was named their captain. Their top player was Brice Turang in the regular season. In the postseason, a whole bunch of players have stepped up. The Brewers were second in runs scored, just ahead of the Nationals. The Brewers…
Situational hitting and awareness for the Nats!
When you watch October baseball, you see a sense of urgency with the pitching. While facing the other team’s best pitching, you have to put together your best at-bats for a chance of getting on-base. In the regular season, the stakes are not as high. Situational hitting and situational awareness has to be worked on and the regular season is like the proving grounds for the postseason. The regular season should feel like the test kitchen for getting it all done correctly. As we look at the Washington Nationals, they were doing a lot of that on offense. James Wood started off slowly, and luckily Joey Wiemer came onto the scene en fuego. Yes, over time, Wood found his timing, and whatever Wiemer had to start the season proved to be short-lived unfortunately. Players like Jacob Young, Keibert Ruiz, Curtis Mead, Luis Garcia Jr., and Andres Chaparro had career years (listed lowest to highest OPS). In 2025, the Nats were the 20ᵗʰ scoring offense in baseball with 687 runs scored — this season, the Nats finished No. 3 in runs scored (821) with nearly the same lineup as last year. Before we take a victory lap on the offense, there is work to be done here with situational hitting. The Nats finished near the MLB middle for RISP hitting at.250, 1,350 strikeouts (8.33 per game), and swinging outside the strike zone at 33.4 percent (known as 0-Swing). Situational hitting is where the Nats must improve going forward. First off, the…
Preparing for the 40-man roster moves this off-season
When your team is out of the postseason, this is the time of year to begin the process of who will and won’t be part of the future as the Nationals have to clear 40-man spots on the roster for 60-day IL players as well as Rule-5 prospects. There are some easy decisions and some difficult decisions in this process along with taking some calculated risks. MLB teams must reinstate all players from the 60-day injured list on the fifth day after the end of the World Series. In normal times, free agents would come off of the roster. That is the case for most teams, but not for the Washington Nationals as they have no pending free agents this offseason to be removed from the roster after the World Series. Key Offseason Deadlines: November 17: Rule-5 Draft protection deadline (40-man roster cutoff) November 20: Non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players December 11–14: MLB Winter Meetings (with the Rule-5 Draft held on the final day, December 14) The Nats could make those non-tender decisions early because they will need to create 60-day decisions/spots for: Drew Millas C Mitchell Parker LHP PJ Poulin LHP Ken Waldichuk LHP Matt Waldron RHP As we wrote about last week, any non-tender of an injured player will result in the Nationals covering the player’s medical and rehab costs. There are no salary implications for any of those players. Our thinking is Millas will be retained. The thinking is that Poulin will most likely to be retained…
Heat in the Desert Sun, Oh Susana
Yesterday was Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League in 93°F weather in the Arizona desert. Jarlin Susana, the Washington Nationals top pitching prospect, was chosen by his manager, Ted Tom, to make the start for the Salt River Rafters. And Susana was on fire! He showed the heat getting his fastball to nearly 104 mph on the radar gun. Between his two-seam (sinkers) and four-seam fastballs, Susana averaged 101.6 mph. He threw 36 fastballs with 35 hitting triple-digit plus velos with his max effort at 103.8 mph, according to Statcast. A stellar Fall League debut by Jarlin Susana pic.twitter.com/Q1L8WgJ8qX — MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 3, 2026 A breakdown of Susana’s fastballs: 100-100.9 mph — 9 pitches 101-101.9 mph — 13 pitches 102-102.9 mph — 7 pitches 103-or-higher mph — 6 pitches Maybe Susana was a little amp’d up as his first four pitches of the game were all arm-side high and above the zone for the dreaded lead-off walk (LoW). Next batter was a 3-pitch strikeout followed by another 4-pitch walk. With one out and two free passes, the cleanup hitter worked a 3-2 count, and connected for a long flyout off a 101.6 mph heater down central. With two on and two outs, Susana got into another 3-2 count and froze the batter on a slider for strike-3. That seemed like a typical Susana inning. Walks and strikeouts and one out in-play while not locating his pitches. His second inning was a quick 1-2-3 with two…
Arizona Fall League and a Nats’ Prospects Camp
Saturdays in October are about the change of seasons in so many parts of the country where the foliage is turning to a new color palette revealing underlying yellow and orange carotenoids and new red and purple anthocyanins. In the Arizona desert and the tropical climate of West Palm Beach in Florida, the cactus and palm trees are still green. Today is traditionally part of some big college football matchups and drinking pumpkin spiced selections at Starbucks. But baseball is on today’s schedule with the opening of the MLB Division Series in the postseason as well as Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League where all six teams are in action. Next Saturday opens “Strength Camp” at West Palm Beach for selected lower minor league top prospects, and that lasts for six weeks. The beginning of camp, per our source, will focus on proper workouts and strength training. The final two weeks of camp will conclude with some training on the field. A source tells us that starting on October 10 for six weeks, Paul Toboni's player development group will be holding a camp at the West Palm Beach facility for selected minor leaguers. — Nats.Talk (@TalkNats) September 16, 2026 This is a first for the Nats at a time when they would be traditionally bringing in prospects for Fall Instructs. This new camp is more specialized and will run for six weeks and finish up right before Thanksgiving. The camp will give these players a head-start on their offseason…
Arbitration salary projections are in, how does that affect the payroll?
Even with a possible lockout of baseball, teams still have to plan for their arbitration-eligible players. MLB Trade Rumors is an excellent resource for projecting those salaries. The Washington Nationals have eight arb-eligible players. The analyst who creates these arb projections for MLBTR is Matt Swartz who has been a consultant with the Nats since 2013. He has created a model to project salaries for arbitration players and does an excellent job. We feel good as we nailed the number on CJ Abrams ($10.2 million), but we were high on everyone else. The good news for Jake Irvin is that Swartz’s number is much more reasonable than ours, and that probably means that Irvin will be tendered at a number just over $3 million. Per MLBTR, “In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.” We have found over the years that Swartz’s numbers are almost always spot on. Last year we saw how Paul Toboni handled arb numbers and they were not comfortable with Cade Cavalli ‘s number and instead worked out a 2-year deal for him. After signing his extension…
How betting market trends show fan attention across baseball and other sports
Betting market activity can provide insight into the levels of fan attention and engagement for baseball games compared with other sports. By observing factors such as volume, odds movement, and market timing, it is possible to examine the connection between fan interest and betting activity, particularly with examples involving the Nationals as well as international leagues. While not a perfect measure, analyzing these trends helps clarify patterns in how fans follow different sporting events. Understanding how market activity reflects fan engagement Market activity in sports betting is often viewed as a proxy for how much attention fans are paying to particular events. In the case of baseball, high levels of betting volume or notable shifts in odds suggest that certain games or teams, like the Nationals, are generating interest among both avid followers and the broader sports community. The presence of la liga betting odds on leading platforms further demonstrates the diversity of interests spanning multiple leagues and competitions. Several core metrics serve as indicators of engagement. The handle, or total amount wagered, gives a sense of money at stake, while the overall number of bets points to how many fans are getting involved. Liquidity reveals how much money is available for trades, and line movement charts the odds reactions to fresh information, signaling new developments in the lead-up to a game. Through these observations, betting market data offers a window into changes in public focus and sentiment. Contextual factors shaping baseball betting patterns Baseball’s daily schedule and series-based format…